Italy’s Population Poised to Fall 22 Percent by 2080
(MENAFN) Italy is on track to see its population shrink by nearly a quarter over the next five decades, with the most dramatic declines expected in the country’s southern areas, according to a report released Monday by the National Statistics Institute (ISTAT).
Currently estimated at 59 million, Italy’s population is predicted to fall to 54.7 million by 2050 and further decrease to 45.8 million by 2080 — a staggering 22-percent reduction over 55 years. This forecast highlights the critical demographic challenges facing a nation already burdened with one of the oldest populations worldwide.
ISTAT links this long-term population drop to persistently low birth rates, extended life expectancy, and evolving family dynamics. The fertility rate in Italy stands at a mere 1.2 children per woman, significantly below the 2.1 replacement level required to maintain population size. Meanwhile, the average age has climbed to 46.4 years.
Even factoring in immigration, ISTAT warns that incoming population flows will not be enough to reverse the downward trend, especially given current strict migration policies.
The demographic transformation will also reshape Italy’s age profile dramatically. By 2050, people aged 65 and older are expected to comprise 34.6 percent of the population — up sharply from today’s 24.3 percent. Meanwhile, the working-age group (15-64 years) will shrink from 63.5 percent to 54.3 percent, and the proportion of children under 14 will decline slightly from 12.2 percent to 11.2 percent.
Household compositions are changing as well. At present, three in ten Italian households consist of couples with children; this figure is projected to drop to just one in five by 2050. Conversely, single-person households are expected to rise from 36.8 percent to 41.1 percent.
Population losses will not be evenly distributed. Southern Italy — long plagued by youth migration and economic slowdown — could see a population decrease of 3.4 million by 2050 and as many as 7.9 million by 2080. Although northern regions may experience slight growth through 2030, projections show they will eventually face population decline too.
This stark demographic forecast signals urgent challenges for Italy’s social and economic fabric as it grapples with an aging, shrinking population and regional disparities.
Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the
information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept
any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images,
videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information
contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright
issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.
Legal Disclaimer:
EIN Presswire provides this news content "as is" without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the author above.
